India's status as world's fastest growing major economy to be short-lived

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India's status as world's fastest growing major economy to be short-lived

Сообщение geemong » 29 авг 2022, 14:05

India's status as world's fastest growing major economy to be short-lived


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India likely recorded strong double-digit economic growth in the last quarter but economists polled by Reuters expected the pace to more than halve this quarter and slow further toward the end of the year as interest rates rise.

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Asia's third-largest economy is grappling with persistently high unemployment and inflation, which has been running above the top of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance band all year and is set to do so for the rest of 2022.

Growth this quarter is predicted to slow sharply to an annual 6.2 per cent from a median forecast of 15.2 per cent in Q2, supported mainly by statistical comparisons with a year ago rather than new momentum, before decelerating further to 4.5 per cent in October to December.

The median expectation for 2022 growth was 7.2 per cent, according to an Aug 22 to Aug 26 Reuters poll, but economists said that the solid growth rate masks how rapidly the economy was expected to slow in coming months.

"Even as India remains the fastest-growing major economy, domestic consumption will perhaps not be strong enough to drive growth further as unemployment remains high and real wages are at a record low level," said Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale.

"By supporting growth through investment, the government has only fired on one engine while forgetting about the impetus which domestic consumption provides. This is why India's growth is still below its pre-pandemic trend."

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